Some Improbable & Underappreciated Young NBA Players

This year’s rookie class is mostly notable for its total absence of impact, but the big compensation has been the number of other young players putting up remarkable or incongruous stat lines. Here are a few of my favorites:

Nikola Jokic

We may be approaching the end of the period when Jokic could accurately described as “underrated” , but I’m not ready to stop gawking at his numbers just yet. Among all age-21 seasons in NBA history, here’s where Jokic currently ranks:

  • 1st in true shooting
  • 15th in rebound rate
  • 2nd in assist rate among bigs
  • 5th in win shares per 48 minutes, behind Anthony Davis, Shaq, Kevin Durant, and LeBron.

If we start combining those thresholds, we can drop the age requirement and he basically stands either alone or with Hall of Famers.

  • 60.0% TS% and two assists per turnover: Jokic and Brad Daugherty are the only centers.
  • 64.0% TS% and 25% assist rate: Jokic and LeBron (twice) are the only non-point guards.
  • 25% assist rate and 18% rebound rate: Jokic, Kevin Garnett (2), Joakim Noah, and DeMarcus Cousins (this year).
  • .600/.350/.800 from 2PT/3PT/FT: Durant (this year), Steve Kerr, Chris Mullin.

You get the picture. He also has the highest RPM (ESPN’s box score metric) of any player on a losing team.

Rudy Gobert

Gobert, age 24, currently has the 21st-highest season true shooting percentage ever; only one player ahead of him (Cedric Maxwell) was younger (23). He’s doing this while leading the league in blocks per game (granted, it’s a down year for blocks); no player under 25 with 2.5 BPG has ever come within 40 points of his TS%. Drop the age requirement and look at players with .600 TS%, 5.0% block rate, and 20% rebound rate – all of which he easily clears – and we’re down to Gobert and… Dallas’ 30-year-old sophomore Salah Mejri, who is getting limited minutes despite the fact that Andrew Bogut has lost the ability to score and pass overnight.

Gobert is also handily leading the league in defensive RPM (opponents’ FG% jumps 40 points when he’s off the floor) and put up a FG% of .778 in December, the third-highest since 1983-84 for that month.

Otto Porter

Porter’s turnover rate is currently lower than any career mark, and would be one of the 20 lowest ever in a season. Virtually every player ahead of him was a spot-up shooter or a no-pass big man. He’s shaved two percentage points off his turnover rate each season in the league. He’s currently one of 15 players ever with twice as many steals as turnovers in a season.

Dewayne Dedmon

Dedmon showed signs of life last year with Orlando when his true shooting improved by 40 points and his turnover rate fell by a third, but San Antonio has turned him into a gem. Dedmon is currently putting up some historic plus-minus numbers thanks largely to his rebounding efforts; the Spurs are currently 5 rebounds per 100 possessions better with him on the floor than off. This may have something to do with the fact that he’s usually substituting for either LaMarcus Aldridge or Pau Gasol, both of whom are jump shooters rather than post players at this point in their careers. San Antonio’s three best lineups all feature Dedmon.

Giannis Antetokounmpo

Giannis has piled up so many absurd line scores this season that it’s hard to pick a favorite. He piles up numbers in every phase of the game at age 22, and three-point shooting is effectively his only weakness. In 54 games, he’s put up 30+ points 13 times, double-digit boards 19 times, double-digit assists 5 times, 3+ steals 11 times, and 3+ blocks 18 times. His highs are 41-15-11-5-7. At the all-star break, he has four games of 30 points, 5 assists, and multiple steals and blocks; only LeBron (3X), MJ (3X), Wade (2X), Hakeem (3X), David Robinson, Tracy McGrady, and Larry Bird had more in an entire year. His 7 games with 10 boards and 3 blocks have already tied his own record for most ever by a guard. Unfortunately, he also owns 5 of the league’s best 75 game scores in losses so far this year.

Written on March 1, 2017